I’m fairly new to Intervals (meaning in no way an advanced user!) and took some time to look at the “Training load error %” curve after a ride today (found under my specific activity today, then Activity HR).

Does anyone have more information on interpreting this curve (there is some [brief] discussion about this on this forum, but it didn’t seem to be ‘introductory’ which I suppose is what I’m looking for!).

The graph depicts Training load error % (Y axis) vs. date (X axis) where I have ~80 rides in the past ~18 months, with a Y range from -30% to +50.

‘Helper text’ next to the graph is (note, slight formatting changes) …

"This activity has power data so its training load (79) has been calculated using the standard Coggan formula. If power was not available, the training load from HR data would be 80 (based on the model).

Training load for this activity has been estimated using **moving time in each HR zone**. Your previous activities with power and heart rate are used to build a linear regression model to estimate training load.

Estimated load: 80

Actual load: 79

R-squared: 89%

Each dot on the chart is from an activity used to build the model. The y-axis shows the difference between the estimated and actual training load for each activity as a percentage of the actual load."

… so what other interpretations can I draw from the graph?

That is, am I correct to assume that my R-squared (0.89) is fairly high, indicating that my HR data is closely indicative of my training load? I do have a power meter (so don’t necessarily need to rely on HR) but it’d be nice to understand a bit more about this.

Or is Intervals learning the correlation between my HR and power to come up with a relationship? (If that’s the case, are there further results displayed?)

What else can I learn from the graph?

Thanks!