Can I qualify for the Gravel Worlds?

Training
1

Hi all,

In December 2025 I had an idea to attempt to qualify for the Gravel Worlds. I am 61 years old and have been training and racing for about 30 years (although sometimes with several years holiday from racing).

Anyway, I was probably in the worst shape of my 30 year career in Dec 2025 (I estimate that my ftp was the lowest ever (under 200w) and my weight was 82kg (the highest ever).

I didn’t have the greatest winter/spring as although I like to think that I am quite knowledgeable about training and racing I managed to get ill both in January and April and both times I lost about 3 weeks due to the illness and subsequent recovery. However, I did do quite a lot of hours on the bike and did some intervals.

I went to the qualifying race in May (The gralloch, 111km, 2,000m elevation) and did very badly. My position was 106 out of 131 and my time was 5h48m. I attempted to pace myself steadily and did not go ‘crazy’ in the first hour, however my NP each hour went steadily down from 200w for the first hour down to about 145 by the fifth hour.

This experience gave me a huge kick in the butt so I then took my training much more seriously. I dropped a few kilos down to 73kg and through a combination of sensible hours on the bike, gym work and intervals, plus some racing, etc. my ftp came up to a good solid 230w.

I went to the second race (last week) with high hopes as my form was completely transformed and I felt fitter than I had done for at least 10 years.

However, I also did quite badly at this race. I had decided on a race strategy of going ‘all in’ for qualification. I wasn’t interested in finishing or getting a good time - it was qualification or nothing. This meant that pacing wasn’t in the plan, I had to stay with the front group. Well, I did stay with the front group for about 8km until the first serious climb where I was dropped. After this I chased hard for at least 1 hour. My NP for the first hour was 244w, which of course is totally unsustainable, and I although I was only 4 minutes back from the qualifiers after an hour, the gap continued to expand.

After the first hour my NP dropped in a fairly linear fashion down to about 170w for each hour. During the last hour I had to stop with agonising cramp (understandably as I had been going way over my limit for hours) and had to limp home completely blown.

I completed the course in 5h 01m. A huge improvement over the same distance from May even considering the very unwise pacing.

Anyway, the slowest qualifiers on that day in September finished in 4h 23m. Right now this looks like an unbridgeable improvement to reduce my time by over 35 minutes.

My current numbers are as follows:

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Based on this I estimate that I would need to increase these numbers quite a lot, maybe as follows:

5m - 350w (to hang on during intense short climbs)

20m 280w

FTP say 260w?

I don’t even know if this is what is needed, but I know another racer who did a qualifying time at last years race and his NP was 210w for the whole 4.5 hours. So perhaps that is a better measure, being able to sustain an NP of 210w for 4.5 hours.

So the 64,000 dollar question is, is it realistic for me to improve that much over winter?

2

this is being cheeky, but all you have to do is sign up www.gravel-worlds.com

(it’s not the UCI event, obviously)

1 Like
3

This is a fantastic winter group coaching program:

Relatively inexpensive and you’ll learn a lot. I’ve done it 3 times and its made me a better self-coached athlete.

You will likely build a better base for 2027, and understanding of how to effectively train to increase the probability of getting faster, sooner. After Winter base program you can continue on your own, continue with a coach, or use one of the BaseCamp plans from TrainingPeaks.

If you want to sign up, save $25 by using my referral link (I’m not doing it this year, so no benefit for myself). For anyone interested I can send a referral link via private message.

4

This is an impossible question for anyone to answer because we dont know so many factors. Yes, you were 35m behind and yes, given you’re an experience athlete there are no easy gains anymore.

However what I think could help you decide whether is realistic is to try and find some riders that qualified (lower end) and study their race in Strava. Especially what kind of power they held in the first part of the race vs the latter.

Yours dropped significantly lateron in the race, but maybe theirs did as well and the race was (as many of the faster not purely climbing gran fondo’s and gravel races are) mostly decided by who could hang on with the front group.

My gut feeling is that you are still quite a bit off, but maybe the difference between holding on with the qualifiers and your current performance is less than you think.

Again, there are a thousand different answers to this. The perspective above is from my own experience where i did not really try to qualify but in the end, also came ‘just’ 40m short and noticed that my power in the second half was higher than some of the qualifiers but i took it easy the first climb (and thus missed the fast pack for the flatter section aftewards).

Ohh and yes, if you want a truly great training program, check out LeCoach (my initiative).

5

If you have a great winter and early Spring, then maybe you can.

It is one of those things you won’t know until you try.

6

Difficult to say definitively yes or no, but with some structured training and some intermediate (process) goals, you could track your progress.

Gravel and the XCM discipline is mostly built around TTE. So you don’t necessarily need to improve your FTP, but rather extend time in zone to be able to ride the same average power for longer. Yes, a 5m power improvement can help, but not at the expense of burning matches leaving you without anything left in the tank for later. If it means staying with a small group that can help you ride the “flats/downhills” at a slightly lower power, then yes.

As for your power expectations. There’s a big difference between 285W for 5m vs 350W. How does that compare to your all time best?

If you want a “consultation”, let me know by DM.

1 Like
7

Thank you Rutger. Yes, some very good points there. I didn’t think of looking on strava. I will have a look!

8

Yes, but motivation is a factor. I need to believe that it’s possible to work so hard.

It reminds me of that scene in the matrix when he ‘begins to believe’ :sweat_smile:

1 Like
9

Thank you.

I have been thinking about ‘all time’ best numbers, but my use of power meters over the years has been patchy. Definitely some of my best (race) performances were done without a power meter because for many years the only power meter I had was on my turbo trainer. It also depends on whether I have done an all out effort for that time period.

Strava says my all time bests (some of them must be estimated)

1 min 478w

2 min 421w

3 min 395w

5 min 354w

10 min 331w

20 min 315w

30 min 296w

Looking at those numbers it looks like I have enough genetic capability, but some of them must be from 20 years ago! (even if they are accurate).

I have put the real numbers below, but also may lack data.

One specific point that I do remember is that in 2017 I was doing 2 x 20 mins at 260w reasonably comfortably - something that I certainly could not do today.

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Well, I have just spent some time with Claude analysing other riders performances.

Here’s the combined table, sorted by finish time:

Rider Age Cat Cat Pos Qualified? Finish NP IF 1min 5min 20min FTP
1 60-64 4th Yes 4:15:04 227W 87% 409W 292W 241W 261W
2 65-69 2nd Yes 4:18:03 217W 88% 398W 289W 242W 247W
3 55-59 22nd No 4:19:05 219W 89% 326W 277W 242W 246W
4 55-59 24th No 4:22:40 249W 89% 436W 314W 289W 280W
5 60-64 11th Yes (last Q) 4:23:25 224W 97% 398W 295W 246W 231W
6 60-64 12th No 4:24:26 217W 74% 444W 281W 245W 293W*
7 60-64 30th No 5:00:54 188W 72% 358W 274W 208W 261W

It is an analysis of those riders finishing around the slowest qualifying time for my category.

Having done some more discussion analysis it has left me with these target numbers for winter:

Final winter target set:

Metric Target Current best (season) Gap
FTP 260W ~230W +30W
20-min 275W 237W +38W
5-min 310W 285W +25W
1-min 450W 424W (race, fresh) +26W

So now the question, as you rightly put it, is whether I think I can hit those numbers in 6 to 9 months of training.

1 Like
11

Hello Allen, in principle you should be able to reach these numbers comfortably within 6 to 9 months. Ultimately, the key question is how many hours per week you can train and what constraints might get in the way. With around 5 to 6 hours per week, this is certainly a realistic goal.
I’d be happy to help you a bit with planning; structured workouts on the trainer will definitely be essential to increase your performance in a more focused way, even if they’re less fun than free riding. Feel free to send me a private message.

12

I’m going to respectfully disagree with Dr_Kruat, in that I don’t think it’s a realistic goal to improve by those amounts with 5-6 hours/week in the time frame given (or any time frame, really). To make those improvements, which seem to be in the ballpark of 8-13%, I think you’ll need more training time.

I could be wrong, of course.

1 Like
13

Thanks for the input.

When I did some searching there does not seem to be much research done on well-trained masters cyclists and the feasible improvement. I also agree that those targets are very big improvements.

I am retired and would be happy to do 10 or 12 hours a week if my body would absorb it. I haven’t developed a training plan yet, but looking back over the last few months I have been doing 6 to 9 hours a week, plus 2 x 90 min sessions in the gym.

Mentally I am very good at following a fixed training plan, but my body isn’t. I often have to modify my plan due to how I’m feeling on a particular day/week.

How many hours a week would I need to do to improve this much in your opinion?

14

Honestly you would benefit from working with a top coach that has experience with masters and grand masters. The empirical data of cyclists like you isn’t being fed into public AI. At this time AI is better at doing analytics than training plans.

1 Like
15

Worth a chat with a coaching set up that works with masters cyclists. Whether you end up working with them or not

16

It would be difficult for me to say as so many different factors in play.

17

Completely out of left field, but how about this: focus 100% on process goals that you can actually influence daily, sign up, race, and see where you land.

Really. No matter how much you think you need Neo or Morpheus nagging you on, but you can do nothing better than training optimally and then giving it your all.

The training is were everything happens, the race is just a little reward at the end.

And you’re still young, there will be another Worlds the next year to try again if it doesn’t pan out.

2 Likes
18

your goal is worth a shot. Go for it!

If the body absorbs it, build toward 15 hours. Use a 3 week build and a recovery week at about half volume.

Once a month test your fitness. Ride 3 hours steady and then go all out for 20 mins. This is more the type of fitness you will need for the race you are going for. If you’re training is going in right direction you should see the 20 min power improve over time.

The 90 minute gym blocks seem long. Short concurrent sessions: one heavy day, one explosive day. Stack both on the interval days lift in the morning, bike later, or flip it if needed.

Sprint programs have done heavy lifting before the speed session for decades with top results. I have also seen this work well for cyclist and triathletes

To help keep your head in the game, focus on & track where you have come from, not ware you want to be. Progress is the key

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I agree, but also important to be clear of one’s goals. I accept that not only can I not ‘know’ if the training will work, but also that many things can change/go wrong between now and race day.

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Working to be fitter and have better power is good and cannot be worse but with stuff like Gravel and MTB, you need also work on technique too, so as well as hitting the structured training, you need to know that you can follow the best lines at a good speed.

For example your in a group, they fly down a descent but as you do it you brake or loose the group, you then need to power on much harder at the next flat or uphill. Your then expending more power than they are. Might be worth some recon and work on technique and find the stuff that works for you like Tyre choice or similar, as you need to pick what’s going to benefit you most.

Do they release you in Waves i.e. you know who is in your Cat? So if its top 25% you can see who is in that group work out a position?

Racing at Worlds level can be hard as you have some really good Vets and Super Vets that have been racing at a high level for years, so they generally have a bit of a head start in managing power, training, fuelling and technique/ability.