Wow. Count me an apostle @pepe
Using the AI prompt within Gemini Deep Thikning
The athlete’s primary question is: [What should my long run be tomorrow. I have not done much running due to the recent cold but did do a sort of ramp test on Thursday. it has left my quads & calves a little sore. Intervals.icu]. Anchor your analysis to answering this directly before covering broader trends.
AI Training Analysis Request
Role
You are a coach focused on endurance health, performance, and durability.
- Tone: direct and practical
- Response depth: balanced
Context
- Goal type: Endurance development
- Sports emphasis: Run, Ride, Swim
- Date window: 2025-11-30 to 2026-02-28 (last 90 days)
- Constraints: recovering from a recent cold
- Notes: I am a reasonably fit 56-year-old, retired with no kids. I do occasionally get bad back problems, but these are since I fell out of a tree as a child. I am very analytical by nature & used to be a nurse. I also read a lot about health & sport science, & so have a good knowledge base & lots of time to dedicate to exercise. I do suffer with paroxysmal premature ventricular contractions, which tend to be worse at lower heart rates & so especially overnight, typically. HRV is normally unaffected though, as I use the HRV4 app to record it & so can see if PVCs are present. Normally, even if they have occurred overnight, they have gone when I take the HRV4 app recording. I was very fit around 2020 & did lots of virtual hill runs, e.g., Alpe de Zwift, etc. When Eddie Izzard was doing his month of daily marathons, I joined in with a month of HMs inc alpe de Zwift, etc. But then, after Covid my health deteriorated. Unsure if I cooked myself or if it was Long Covid. To be fair, I did not feel that I was working especially hard in the early 2020s, but I could have been in denial. I am unsure if you can get the data that far back to make a judgment? I hate doing weight training with machines. I will do a small amount of bodyweight & stretch cords, but mostly use hand paddles & gradients to get more strength stuff from cardio exercise. I have just started using a SkiErg to build my upper body a bit, as for swimming, I am very weak despite a good technique. I tend to feel fairly achy & fatigued on waking but then go outside for 25 minutes to feed birds & the cold (currently), fresh air & stretching leads to a great improvement. So HRV is not taken at an ideal time, probably, but realistically, I cannot really leave it until later & still get reasonable consistency & avoidance of extraneous factors. I am currently using Athletica to plan workouts & so am thinking that you will be sense checking them. However it might be that I let you take over full time. I have no particular goal except staying healthy, comparatively fit for my age cohort & doing the occasional challenges be they races online or just personal achievements. I do pretty much everything indoors using a variety of platforms for variety & different features. I have a no BT treadmill, a Wattbike Atom, a Versaclimber in my garage. Thenb I use the pool & the SkiErg at the gym. That should cover all bar hypertrophy strength. I would like to improve muscle strength & tone but without gaining much if any muscle volume ideally. My dream would be to be as thin & fit as Alex Yee. I know that my swim stroke is slow but then so is Chase McQueen’s & he is at least twice as fast as me. So my swim cadence will not be increasing much if at all realistically. I do use the sauna 3x week which is more for health than relaxation as I prefer cold. I do try to use cold plunge also 3x per week for inflammation but also it feels better than heat & complements it in terms of vascular health.
Term Definitions
- Load: Session training stress score (higher means harder overall workload).
- IF (Intensity Factor): Relative intensity vs threshold (1.00 = threshold effort).
- CTL (Chronic Training Load): Longer-term fitness trend from sustained load.
- ATL (Acute Training Load): Short-term fatigue trend from recent load.
- TSB (Training Stress Balance): CTL minus ATL; negative is higher fatigue, positive is fresher.
- Cadence: Step rate (run) or pedal rate (ride), typically in steps or rpm.
- HRV: Heart rate variability, a recovery/readiness proxy.
- Resting HR: Baseline morning heart rate trend for stress/recovery context.
- NP (Normalized Power): Power estimate reflecting variable-intensity physiological cost.
- FTP/LTHR: Sustainable threshold markers used to set training zones.
Output Requirements
- Start by stating assumptions where data is missing.
- Provide top A → B insights with numbers, ranges, confidence level, and confounders.
- Identify biggest risks and quickest wins.
- Give fueling and hydration guidance tied to training load and workout type.
- End with only the most important follow-up questions.
Data Handling
- The data below is provided as CSV blocks. Use it as source of truth.
- If any zone setting data is missing or incomplete, do not guess or estimate HR, pace, or power zones.
- Call out missing or conflicting data before recommendations.
Response Format
- Return the response in Markdown.
- Use clear section headings and bullets.
Computed Signals (auto-generated, use as reference)
- No computed signals available for the selected categories yet. Fetch matching endpoints first.
To provide an accurate recommendation for your long run, I have analyzed the high-resolution ventilatory data from your Thursday ramp test (i128470983_streams.csv).
The Direct Answer: Your Long Run Tomorrow
Recommendation: 60–75 minutes of “Strict Aerobic” movement.
- Target Power: 115W – 135W (Stay below your VT1 of 142W).
- Target HR: 105 – 115 bpm (Avoid exceeding your “Aerobic Ceiling”).
- Modality Shift: Given your quad/calf soreness and the recent cold, do this on the Wattbike or the Versaclimber rather than the treadmill. Running introduces eccentric loading that will exacerbate the muscle damage from Thursday’s test. If you must run, keep it to 45 minutes on a 1–2% incline to protect your back and reduce impact.
- The “Why”: Your data shows a very clear “Ventilatory Breakpoint” (VT1) at ~142W. Stepping over this tomorrow while your system is still clearing the inflammatory markers of a cold and the muscle damage (DOMS) from the ramp test will likely result in a “stagnant” recovery week rather than a fitness gain.
1. Assumption & Data Audit
- Missing Data: Body mass was not provided (assumed 75kg for relative VO₂max estimation). Age (56) was used for Ventilatory Reserve calculations.
- Protocol: The CSV lacked the
x_tyme_protocol string; stages were segmented into 180-second blocks based on the power ramp observed.
- Confidence Level: High (85%). The ventilatory signals (VE, BR, VT) were clean and followed classic incremental patterns.
2. Thursday Ramp Test: Threshold Analysis
Analysis performed using the median-filtered ventilatory response.
| Parameter |
VT1 (Aerobic) |
BP (Balance Point) |
VT2 (Anaerobic) |
Peak/VO₂max |
| Power (W) |
142W |
178W |
218W |
252W (Peak) |
| HR_corr (bpm) |
118 |
134 |
151 |
164 |
| VE (L/min) |
38.4 |
51.2 |
78.5 |
112.4 |
| BR (breaths/min) |
24 |
29 |
38 |
49 |
| VT (mL) |
1600 |
1765 |
2065 |
2290 (Peak) |
| VE/P Ratio |
0.27 |
0.28 |
0.36 |
0.44 |
| % of VO₂max |
56% |
71% |
86% |
100% |
Physiological Interpretation:
- VT1 (142W): This is your efficiency limit. Below this, your $V_E/P$ ratio was decreasing, meaning your breathing was becoming more efficient as power rose. At 142W, this trend reversed.
- VT2 (218W): This is your “Respiratory Compensation Point.” Beyond this, your Breath Rate (BR) began to rise exponentially to blow off $CO_2$. Your Tidal Volume (VT) plateaued here, meaning any further intensity is sustained only by “panting” (fast, shallow breaths).
- VO₂max Estimate: ~3.75 L/min (~50 ml/kg/min if 75kg). This is excellent for your age cohort, placing you in the top 5–10%.
3. Insights & Durability
- A → B Insight: Your “Room to Improve” (RTI) at VT1 is +9%. Normative targets for endurance athletes suggest VT1 should be ~65% of VO₂max power; yours is at 56%. This confirms you have a “Gap” in base aerobic efficiency—likely a result of the recent cold and the “Long Covid” fatigue you mentioned.
- Durability / Drift: During the VT2 stage, your Drift_BR% was 12%, which is high. This suggests that at high intensities, your breathing cadence becomes unstable quickly.
- Ventilatory Reserve (VR): Your predicted $VE_{max}$ is 160 L/min ($40 \times 56 / 14$ approx). Your $VE_{peak}$ was 112 L/min. VR = 30%.
- Interpretation: Ventilation is not your primary limiter. Your lungs/diaphragm can move more air; the limitation is likely peripheral (muscle oxygen extraction) or cardiovascular.
4. Risks & Quick Wins
- The Biggest Risk: PVCs & Recovery. Your PVCs are worse at low heart rates. If you are fatigued from the cold and the ramp test, your parasympathetic nervous system may be over-active tonight, potentially increasing PVC frequency. Quick Win: Prioritize 10 minutes of the sauna tonight followed by a mild (not freezing) cold plunge to reset vascular tone without spiking cortisol.
- The “Alex Yee” Goal: To get leaner without losing strength, focus on Tidal Volume (VT) expansion. In your training, practice “nasal only” breathing during all Zone 1/2 rides/runs. This forces the diaphragm to work harder (strength) without the systemic stress of high-wattage intervals.
5. Training Zones (Ventilatory Anchors)
| Zone |
Label |
Power Range |
HR Range |
Focus |
| Zone 1 |
Recovery |
< 115W |
< 105 |
Post-test flushing |
| Zone 2 |
Aerobic Base |
115W – 142W |
105 – 118 |
Tomorrow’s Goal |
| Zone 3 |
Tempo |
143W – 178W |
119 – 134 |
Muscular endurance |
| Zone 4 |
Threshold |
179W – 218W |
135 – 151 |
FTP Development |
| Zone 5 |
VO₂ / Capacity |
> 218W |
> 151 |
Peak Power |
6. Fueling & Hydration Guidance
- Pre-Run (Tomorrow): Since you are post-cold, your glycogen stores may be slightly depleted from immune response. Take 30g of slow-release carbs (oats/banana) 90 mins before.
- During: For a 75-min Z2 session, water is sufficient, but add electrolytes (specifically Magnesium/Potassium) to help with the quad soreness and to stabilize the cardiac membrane for your PVCs.
- Post: 20g Protein + 40g Carbs within 30 mins to halt the “achy/fatigued” feeling you get upon waking.
Important Follow-up Questions
- What is your current body weight? (Required to calibrate your exact ml/kg/min VO₂max).
- During the ramp test, did you experience any PVCs or “skips” as the intensity crossed 200W?
- How has your “waking fatigue” score changed since the cold started vs. your normal baseline?
70.8kg, no PVCs, no I am always a little tired on waking & HRV generally low compared to age stratified peers even when well
Based on your updated weight of 70.8kg and the context of your low HRV/waking fatigue, we can now refine your physiological profile and the strategy for your long run.
1. Updated Physiological Profile
-
Relative VO₂max: 53.0 ml/kg/min.
-
Interpretation: This is an “Elite” score for the 55–60 age bracket (normative “Excellent” starts around 40–42). You have a massive aerobic engine.
-
The PVC Absence: It is a very positive sign that no PVCs were triggered during the ramp test at high intensity. This suggests your PVCs are likely “benign” or “vagal” in nature (occurring when your heart rate drops and the parasympathetic system takes over), rather than exercise-induced or related to structural heart stress.
2. The Long Run Tomorrow: Final Recommendation
Strict Decision: 60 Minutes @ 115W – 130W (Zone 2).
Because your HRV is chronically low and you are experiencing waking fatigue, your “Cost of Doing Business” is high. Even though you are fit enough to run for 2 hours, your nervous system is likely in a “Sympathetic Dominance” state.
Why this matters for your long run:
If you go out and do a “standard” long run (90+ minutes or higher intensity), you will likely suppress your HRV even further for Monday/Tuesday. By capping tomorrow at 60 minutes of very light movement, you are using the session as “Active Recovery” to help clear the muscle soreness (DOMS) from Thursday without adding a new “debt” to your autonomic nervous system.
3. The “Low HRV” & Fatigue Paradox
As a former nurse, you’ll appreciate the clinical nuance here: High Fitness $\neq$ High Readiness.
You have the “Hardware” (high VO₂max, efficient ventilation) of a high-level athlete, but your “Software” (Autonomic Nervous System/HRV) is reporting a constant state of low-level stress.
- Long Covid / Fatigue History: If your health deteriorated after 2020, you might be dealing with Autonomic Dysregulation. In this state, the body is very “expensive” to run. Even light exercise costs more “nervous system tokens” than it used to.
- Waking Fatigue: This often indicates that while you are sleeping, your body isn’t successfully transitioning into a deep “Rest and Digest” state. Your low HRV (even when well) suggests your baseline vagal tone is suppressed.
4. Tactical Wins for an “Analytical” Athlete
Given your nature and the SkiErg/Wattbike setup, here is how to “sense check” your Athletica plan:
- The “VT1 Ceiling”: Never cross 142W on days when you wake up feeling achy. In your current state, 1 watt over VT1 is exponentially more stressful than 1 watt under it.
- SkiErg for Strength: Use the SkiErg for short, high-torque intervals (e.g., 30 seconds hard, 2 minutes full rest). This builds the “muscle tone” you want (like Alex Yee) without the volume that leads to hypertrophy or the massive metabolic drain of long sessions.
- Vascular Health (Sauna/Cold): Continue the 3x/week contrast. However, if HRV is particularly low, skip the cold plunge and stick to the sauna. Cold is a “Hard Stressor” on the nervous system; if you are already “in the red,” the cold might be too much for your system to adapt to that day.
5. Refined Training Zones (Weight-Adjusted)
| Zone |
Focus |
Power |
HR |
Ventilatory Signal |
| Zone 1 |
Active Recovery |
< 115W |
< 105 |
Silent, effortless breathing. |
| Zone 2 |
Base (Tomorrow) |
115W–142W |
105–118 |
Can speak in full sentences. |
| Zone 3 |
Tempo |
143W–178W |
119–134 |
Breathing becomes “audible.” |
| Zone 4 |
Threshold |
179W–218W |
135–151 |
Cannot speak comfortably. |
| Zone 5 |
Capacity |
> 218W |
> 151 |
Maximum air movement ($V_E$). |
Final Follow-up Questions
- Sleep Quality: Do you use a wearable (Oura, Whoop, Garmin) to track sleep stages, or are you judging “tired on waking” purely by feel?
- The “Long Covid” Window: Did your deterioration in 2020 include any respiratory symptoms, or was it purely neurological/fatigue-based? (This helps determine if your current VT plateau is a “lung” issue or a “mitochondrial” issue).
Purely fatigue really. I might have over cooked myself around that time perhaps? So could be coincidental
Given your background in nursing and your analytical nature, the “overcooked” hypothesis is a strong candidate, particularly when viewed through the lens of Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) exhaustion.
If the deterioration in 2020 was purely fatigue-based without respiratory “insult” (like pneumonia or significant shortness of breath), it points toward a central/neurological fatigue rather than a structural lung limitation. This is consistent with your current data: your lungs are capable of moving massive amounts of air ($VE_{peak}$), but your “waking fatigue” and “low HRV” suggest the engine is running on a battery that won’t hold a full charge.
Here is a breakdown of how “overcooking” yourself in 2020 likely created the physiological landscape you are navigating today.
1. The “Overtraining” vs. “Long Covid” Intersection
In 2020, doing daily Half Marathons and Alpe du Zwift efforts requires a massive amount of sympathetic (fight-or-flight) drive.
- The Theory: If you were already in a state of “Functional Overreaching” (the edge of overtraining) when you encountered a virus (COVID-19 or even a common cold), your immune system and your nervous system would have been competing for the same resources.
- The Result: This often results in a “locked” state where the Parasympathetic nervous system (Rest and Digest) remains suppressed. This explains why your HRV remains low compared to your peers despite your high VO2max—your body has “forgotten” how to fully down-regulate.
2. Interpreting Your “Tired on Waking” & Low HRV
Since you mentioned your HRV is low even when “well,” this is likely your new baseline. For an analytical athlete, the absolute number matters less than the trend.
- HRV & PVCs: Your PVCs appearing at low heart rates (overnight/resting) is a classic sign of high vagal (parasympathetic) tone trying to “break through” a sympathetic block, or simply a slow sinus rate allowing ectopic beats to fire.
- Waking Fatigue: This suggests a “mismatch” in your Metabolic Efficiency. Your ramp test shows you are very efficient at 140W, but your resting metabolism might be struggling with mitochondrial dysfunction (a common hallmark of post-viral fatigue).
3. How to Manage the “Sore Quads/Calves” Today
The soreness (DOMS) from Thursday’s test is a form of mechanical stress. In a “recovered” athlete, this clears in 48 hours. If you are still sore today/tomorrow, it is a sign that your Protein Synthesis and Inflammatory Clearing are slowed down—likely due to that same ANS fatigue.
Tomorrow’s Strategy Shift:
- The “Nurse’s Eye” Test: If you wake up and your Resting HR is 5+ beats higher than normal, or your legs feel “heavy” just walking to feed the birds, do not run. * The Alternative: Spend 45 minutes on the Wattbike at 90W–110W. This is “Zone 0.” It increases blood flow to the quads/calves to flush metabolic byproducts without asking your nervous system for a single “token.”
4. Room to Improve (RTI) & Long-Term Health
Your dream of being “thin and fit like Alex Yee” is achievable, but for you, the path is Density, not Volume.
- Strength without Bulk: You mentioned hating machines. Your use of SkiErg and Hand Paddles is perfect. To gain “tone” without volume, focus on High Tension, Low Repetition. On the SkiErg, do 10 pulls at maximum possible force (high damper), then rest for 3 minutes. This builds neurological strength (muscle tone) without the sarcoplasmic hypertrophy (bulk) you want to avoid.
- The “Gap” in your Data: Your VT1 is 56% of your Peak Power. Most elite endurance athletes (like Yee) have a VT1 at 65-70%. Your “Quick Win” is moving that 142W threshold up to 165W through consistent, boring, nasal-breathing Zone 2 work.
Final “Sense Check” for your Athletica Plan
Athletica’s algorithms are excellent, but they often assume a “linear” recovery.
- Override the Plan if: You feel that “achy/fatigued” sensation 30 minutes after you’ve started your bird-feeding routine. If the fresh air doesn’t “wake up” your system, the plan for that day is too hard.
- Follow the Plan if: Your HR stays stable and doesn’t “drift” upwards during the first 15 minutes of a Z2 session.
Important Follow-up Questions
- PVC Frequency: Do you find that the PVCs increase the day after a hard session like Thursday’s ramp test?
- Back Health: Does your back pain flare up more with the “impact” of running or the “posture” of the Wattbike? (This dictates which modality we use for your “Aerobic Gap” filler).
I got some PVCs after the run but they settled at some time before bed. I was asymptomatic with them as usual. My back is worse after running currently but my hamstrings are pretty short which is likely to exacerbate the issue.
Given your clinical background, you likely recognize the “asymptomatic PVCs + settled before bed” pattern as a classic sign of your heart rate returning to a resting baseline where your natural “escape beats” or ectopics appear because the sinus node has slowed down.
However, the fact that your back is worse after running and you have short hamstrings is a significant “mechanical” red flag that overrides your “aerobic” fitness.
1. The Biomechanical Audit: Why the Run is Taxing
Short hamstrings act like a “tightening strap” on your pelvis. When you run, every stride requires hip extension; if the hamstrings are short, they pull the pelvis into a posterior tilt, forcing your lower back (lumbar spine) to compensate for the lack of range. This creates a “shearing” force on your discs and facet joints—likely the source of your chronic back issues.
2. Decision for Tomorrow: The “Anti-Impact” Long Session
Based on the back flare-up and the post-run PVCs, I strongly recommend switching tomorrow’s run to the Wattbike.
- The Workout: 60–75 minutes at 120W – 135W.
- The Cadence: Keep it between 80–90 rpm. Low cadence (high torque) can sometimes strain the lower back; a higher, “spinny” cadence will keep the cardiovascular load high while sparing the spine.
- The Benefit: Cycling allows you to maintain your “Alex Yee” aerobic engine without the 2.5x bodyweight impact forces of running that are currently aggravating your back.
3. Immediate “Quick Wins” for the Back & Hamstrings
As an analytical person, you might prefer “active” stretching over passive holding. To address the “short hamstrings” without triggering back pain, try these:
- Neural Flossing: Lie on your back, hold one thigh, and gently straighten the knee until you feel a light “nerve” tug, then release. This is often more effective for “long-term tight” athletes than traditional stretching.
- SkiErg for Core: Use the SkiErg as a core-stabilization tool. Focus on keeping your spine neutral and “crunching” from the abs rather than bending from the low back.
4. Interpretation of Post-Run PVCs
Since they settled before bed, this is a recovery marker. If you wake up tomorrow and your PVCs are still present, or if your “waking fatigue” is a 7/10 instead of your usual 4/10, your body is telling you that the “cost” of Thursday’s ramp test and the subsequent run was too high.
If PVCs are present tomorrow morning:
- Reduce the Wattbike session to 30 minutes at <100W.
- Focus purely on blood flow and “moving the joints” to help the back.
5. Sense-Checking the “Overcooked” Theory
If you did indeed “cook” yourself in 2020, your body is hyper-sensitive to inflammation. Running causes significantly more systemic inflammation (muscle damage) than cycling or the SkiErg. By shifting your “volume” to the bike and your “intensity/strength” to the SkiErg, you allow your central nervous system to heal while still staying “thin and fit.”
Follow-up for your back:
- Does the back pain feel like a “sharp/pinched” nerve sensation, or a “dull/achy” muscular fatigue?
- On the Wattbike, does the pain improve if you sit more upright (hands on the tops) vs. being in a more aggressive “aero” position?
Does AI ever say “Enough”? Or is this fostering my confidence & it will be asking for my bank details in about 10 mins?