FTP estimation is wrong

I started adding new rides to update my profile and workout history. I added some workouts from 2014 and 2015. I realised that now, my FTP estimation is much higher. For instance, after last Saturday ride, the system told me my FTP was 194 W, and now it says my FTP is 226 W. I don’t understand why this change, but I would say that my FTP is closer to 194 W than 226 W. Additionally if I check my rides from 2014-2015, I see my FTP is fluctuating from one day to another.

I guess I have an issue here. Could you give me any suggestion about how to solve it?

This system works only with some max efforts in short, medium and long durations. So feed the model with all outs.

But what is the relation of that to what I am saying?

The model needs good efforts.
Look at your activity from last Saturday…are there some power spikes in there?

Are you looking at each Ride eFTP on the activity or at the eFTP on the Fitness page?
Each ride will have a “ride eFTP” but if there are no maximal efforts during this ride, this is meaningless.
If you do a maximal effort of at least 3 minutes (configurable in the settings) and up to 20 minutes, eFTP will be updated if it is higher then the actual one. If you don’t ride for a period, eFTP will decline automatically somewhat, but for a longer inactive period, it’s better to adjust it way down in the settings and perform a maximal effort to have a new starting point.

@MedTechCD has it about right. Probably you have an old activity that really bumped up your eFTP and it hasn’t decayed much since then. You can find it by looking at the dots under the fitness chart or by turning on the FTP chart. Maybe the power for that ride is dodgy or maybe you just need a longer min duration for max efforts for eFTP.

“If you do a maximal effort of at least 3 minutes (configurable in the settings) and up to 20 minutes, eFTP will be updated if it is higher then the actual one”

But how is “maximal effort” determined?

My latest workout was an 3x6 min sweet spot plus and one hour mix of recovery (Z1) and endurance (Z2). I did it on indoor trainer in resistance mode.

During the intervals the power varied around my SS target (195w), and the average power was 195w for all intervals. But the eFTP was only 162w.

Why so?

A maximal effort is litterally a maximum effort :grinning:
Do a good warmup and then settle at a somewhat stable power output about 7-15% higher then your expected FTP. Ride untill exhaustion in that one single interval!! Really go deep!
Intervals will compare the Power number and duration to a whole stack of known Power/Duration curves from people all over the world and spit out a eFTP number. If you know that your anaerobic power is high, better stick to higher interval durations to avoid that the anaerobic skews the result.
Since you did SS, you never went above FTP and there is no data to estimate the FTP. You really need a sup FTP effort. The best effort in this case was 195w for 6min and that results in an eFTP calculation with a FTP of 162W. You need to feed the model with the correct information.
I don’t really understand the point of doing 6min intervals at SweetSpot. That duration is normally for VO2max intervals.

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Thanks for your answer, but I still don’t understand.

The program can’t know if I did a maximal effort or not.

During my intervals, with average of 195w, I had peaks well over 200w, but they were not max.
So I still I don’t understand how it picks a 3 minutes duration from a workout.

If it takes an average of best 3 minutes? I doesn’t looks so.

About the 6 minutes SS-intervals. You have to start somewhere and progress from there. For me is 3x6 minutes doable now. Not 3x20 minutes as a beginner FTP-program suggest from a well know site.

Exactly, and that’s why you have to do a maximal effort. Intervals will recognize it and adjust your eFTP “setting”.
I really think you are looking at the “ride eFTP” number per activity. That is only there to give you an idea of the effort done during that specific ride. But if it was a simple endurance ride, it has no meaning.

Activate the eFTP plot on the Fitness page to track improvements.

Then you will see this trace

FTP is what you set manually in the settings. eFTP is what intervals detects. Only eFTP’s higher then the actual number will update the trace and it will decay if you have a longer inactivity period or when you don’t do any high intensity efforts for a while as in this example.

You will improve faster when doing 2x20 at a lower intensity. The basic principle is to get in as much time as possible at a certain effort level. Sweetspot is around 90% FTP, so if you think your FTP is 200w, you should do 2x20 at 180w. Sweetspot is supposed to target aerobic capacity but if you do what is sustainable at 3 x 6 min, you are working VO2max.

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Ok, thanks for your answer.

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