Estimation of running performance

Hi David

it would be great if we can have a sheet in intervals where we ca have running performance estimation.
I use my Gsheet .
I can share you the file if you re interested

in yellow, cell you need to fill

2 Likes

Do you have an English version of that or a reference to a blog post or similar explaining the ideas behind it? I only do cycling so am not familiar with this. Tx.

1 Like

I can translate it for you. I ve got reference in french for the calculation

1 Like

Tx if you could copy that sheet and translate the labels that would be helpful.

1 Like

Runalyze have something called prognosis calculator. I think it would be worth looking at for brain storming. I’m not too familiar with the feature but based on a glance a quick review.

Pros:

  • one of their models can take in to account your current shape for marathons and adjust the model. This may be more realistic.
  • compare with age standards for races

Cons:

  • when comparing estimated performance to personal best, they do not consider personal bests outside of race activities.
  • compare for age standard for races doesn’t include personal bests outside races

Suggested feature improvements:

  • Upload a race GPX and receive a recommended planned race workout with split times including segments for different paces based on uphill, downhill, terrain etc. Routes could be imported via Komoot, Strava etc.
  • Future performance estimation based on previous workouts and response to them and estimated workouts or planned workouts.

Perhaps the same feature could also be used for cycling based on cycling specific performance estimation models.

1 Like

What I would find useful is the equivalent of the cycling power curves but using running GAP (i.e. identifying the best pace over 1m, 2m, 5m, …). While speed isn’t reliable in cycling because environmental conditions have such a big effect, it’s more stable when running (at least over longer durations) and power data is rare. Another way of presenting this that might be more intuitive is the maximum grade adjusted distance covered for each unit of time.

The equivalent of eFTP would be VDOT, Understanding Your VDOT Number — Running Terms – Run161, it’s a bit simpler to calculate you don’t need to fit a curve, just take the best value.

1 Like

That is something I have on the todo list. So you would want time on the x axis and pace on the y axis? I could also do distance on the x axis so then you could read off your best pace or time for 5km or whatever.

1 Like

I think distance on the x axis makes sense, as you point out your best efforts in running are generally going to be for specific distances (5k, 10k, …) this is what I’ll want to compare between seasons.

1 Like