30s avg showing different zones for the same effort

last week i did a ride where i was already pedaling before start, so no zeros on power for 2h, and the 30s avg showed the avg zone as zone 2, but for me it is already the start of zone 3.

today i did another, where you can see some minutes of no pedaling at the beginning, so some zeros, and 1h straight on the same effort. difference of only 1w.

and then the 30s avg presented the effort as zone 3. my zone 2 top end is around 185w, so 20w below… no apparent reason to such discrepancy.